A short time ago I wrote a blog about the factors that will shape the world- it was about the organizational factor that was the key to very thing. Since then nothing has changed. Today it is this factor that is still the one that is critical. All our problems resolve into organizational problems. To start with go back to 1945 right after World War II, our world organization began there, at Bretton Woods and the Marshall Plan and the creation of NATO. It is now ending and we do not know it. There are three areas that manifest every thing now, one the Ukraine, the international battle over the dollar and trade and three the internal fight for American political control. The media is portraying almost a settled event in the Ukraine it is not, it will almost certainly take until winter to determine that. The gas situation in Ukraine and Europe is not clear and until it is nothing will be clear. The position of the dollar is not settled and could take some time. And the American politic
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The New Micro Forces that Will Shape the Future
This is a continuing essay derived from the 1980’s Millennial Files. It begins with a discussion of the four structures of industrialization. The first is the tangible structure of a production superstructure consisting today of factories, mines and power plants. The second structure is tangible infrastructure of roads, railroads, ports, and canals. The third structure is INTANGIBLE– a financial structure that is responsible for allocating and controlling the capital within the economy, it is composed of banks, insurance companies and foundations. And finally a fourth intangible structure – the organizational structure composed of things like corporations, foundations, and non-profits around which everything is organized. The Great Depression of the 1930’s collapsed the third intangible structure – the financial and monetary structure and the small independent, uninsured and unregulated banks. Today we are faced with the collapse of another intangible structure – the structure
The New Macro Forces that Will Shape the Future
The New Macro Forces that Will Shape the Future By Kirt Sechooler Country Projected GDP 2030 Rank TRILLION CHINA 64.2 1 INDIA 46.3 2 U.S. 31.0 3 INDONESIA 10.1 4 TURKEY 9.1 5 BRAZIL 8.6 6 EGYPT 8.2 7 RUSSIA 7.9 8 JAPAN 7.2 9 GERMANY 6.9 10 At the end of World War II, with the world devastated by the war, the United States had 50% of the world’s entire GDP. We may be the highest in per capita GDP, but not in absolute numbers. There are just two that are members of NATO, number 5 Turkey and number 10 Germany, with the two totaling together 16 trillion. The three Asian countries total over 120 trilli
The Real Factor that Shapes the World (Part 1)
This blog is a continuation of the blog first appearing in the late 1990's, published by myself and the late Professor Lawrence Jorgenson of Los Angeles Valley College. The blog is dedicated to Professor Jorgensen. The Real Factor that Shapes the World The beginning of this story starts with the book Generations by William Strauss and Neil Howe. The particular generations we are concerned with began as follows; Name of Generation Years of Birth Age Now Lost 1883-1900 deceased G.I 1901-1924 almost all deceased Silent 1925-1942 79-96 Boomers 1943-1960 61-78
The Real Factor that Shapes the World (Part 2)
As another demographic configuration came into being, as the Lost generation fell away, and the Silents merged into a partnership with the G.I s. as mature adults, and the Boomers moved into young adulthood, a new generational order was formed. Still later the G.I.s began to fade away and the Boomers and the Silents formed a new generational partnership, in the late 1980s, that replaced the old G.I.s - Silent configuration. The world is now at the point were the Xers are being called upon to replace the Boomers, as mature adults, in what will be an epochal generational change. This change, as the Xers emerge as mature adults, confronts the country with its most difficult challenge since the Civil War. This new demographic configuration represents a startlingly new pattern. By the next election in 2024 half the Boomers will be over seventy and the nation will confront the very real prospect of a full blown gerontocracy. The great question now is will the Xers be able to p
The New Demographic-Technological Model: An Introduction
The New Demographic-Technological Model An Introduction A People without History is like the Wind on the Buffalo Grass. --- Lakota Over the course of the last few years, we have presented in discussions in The Millennial Files the basic structure of a new demographic-technological model of United States history. First of all, the model represents a combination of Neil Howe and William Strauss's new demographic paradigm, described in their book, Generations: The History of America's Future, with our work on the technological cycles of the 200 years of American industrialization. It is important to note that each of these models was developed independently; we believe, however, they reinforce each other in a manner that enhances both models' credibility and utility. In Generations Strauss and Howe proposed a highly original and universal generational paradigm that they applied to the specific history of the United States. Strauss and Howe's work concentrated on t